Impact Report – Arizona Cardinals

The 2010 Arizona Cardinals will look a lot different than the team that went to the Super Bowl just two seasons ago.  Gone now are quarterback Kurt Warner, wide receiver Anquan Boldin, and linebacker Karlos Dansby…all key cogs of that veteran-laden 2008 NFC Championship run.  Instead, Cardinals coaches will be leaning this season on relatively inexperienced players like quarterback Matt Leinart, receivers Steve Breaston and Early Doucet, and running back Beanie Wells, to return them deep into the playoffs.  Few teams face more uncertainty heading into the 2010 campaign, but the Cards remain talented enough on both sides of the ball to make a run at a third straight NFC West crown.

Leinart has struggled when given the reins in the past, and there is no reason to suspect he will be a more competent professional going forward.  He is a low-end QB2 fantasy option, and his erratic play hurts the fantasy prospects of his talented group of receivers, as well.  Larry Fitzgerald should still have a respectable year simply because he is that good, but do not be surprised if he finishes the season in unchartered territory (i.e., outside of the top-20 at his position).  Breaston and Doucet will likely both have strong individual showings throughout the year, but each is no better than a WR3/WR4 as a week-to-week starter.  Wells is perhaps the most intriguing fantasy asset from the Cards roster, as the team figures to run more this year with Leniart under center, and Wells has the raw talent of a top-10 back.  Still, until the organization shows a commitment to giving Beanie at least 75% of the work in the Arizona backfield, draft Wells as a solid RB2.

Impact Report – San Francisco 49ers

Despite finishing 2009 with a middling 8-8 record, San Francisco 49ers fans are as optimistic entering the 2010 season as they have been in some time.  Last season saw a rudimentary coming of age for several players that figure to be big pieces of the puzzle in San Fran for years to come.  Quarterback Alex Smith, wide receiver Michael Crabtree, and tight end Vernon Davis all enjoyed “breakout” moments throughout the season (to varying degrees), and each has only begun to tap his respective potential.  Despite missing a few games to injury, running back Frank Gore also enjoyed a fruitful 2009 campaign.  And with the organization making a concerted effort to improve the offensive line this offseason (utilizing two first-round picks in April’s draft to strenghten the unit), Gore should have even more room to run in 2010.

The additions of Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati (both of whom figure to start sooner, rather than later) along the offensive front portend well to Gore’s fantasy prospects in 2010.  Though the 49ers threw the ball a lot more than most people realize last season, Gore still finished the year as a top-10 fantasy back, and has a good chance to do the same in 2010 (even with the recent signing of Brian Westbrook, who will spell Gore now that Glen Coffee has decided to pursue other vocational endeavors).  Alex Smith will likely never be the player the franchise hoped when drafting him No. 1 overall in 2005, but he should be a solid QB2 option available to fantasy owners in the later rounds of upcoming drafts.  Vernon Davis may never have another year like 2009, but he must be viewed as top-10 fantasy option at his position after hauling in 13 touchdown receptions last year.  Michael Crabtree missed all of training camp before coming into the fold last season, yet still showed flashes of the talent that has had NFL personnel salivating since the diva wideout burst onto the national scene at Texas Tech.  He is a WR2 prospect for now, but will likely be a WR1 at some point (soon) in his fledgling career.  In IDP leagues, it goes without saying that linebacker Patrick Willis is absolute fantasy gold.

Impact Report – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished the 2009 season at the bottom of the NFC South standings, and are a great bet to do so again in 2010.  With a rookie quarterback in Josh Freeman, a below-average backfield, and a depth chart full of practice-squad type receivers, it’s not hard to figure out why the Bucs struggled offensively in 2009.  The defense was a disaster last season, as well, and Tampa fans were finally put out of their misery when the team’s 3-13 season came to a close in early-January.

From a fantasy perspective, few teams had less to offer than the Bucs.  Even this year, their roster is filled with skill position players who represent only mediocre (at best) fantasy value.  Running back Cadillac Williams is probably the most interesting option in Tampa Bay, and what owner is willing to put much stock in him staying healthy for 16 games?  Freeman is pure wire fodder, and it looks as if he very well may be dropping back and deciding between one of two rookie flankers on any given pass play.  Arrelious Benn was the higher drafted of the two Bucs’ rookie wideouts, but Mike Williams is the more dynamic of the two (and thus has the better fantasy prospects, both this year and in the long-term).  Still, Williams should not be selected before the late rounds of fantasy drafts.  Kellen Winslow has a relatively high ADP this season for a tight end who has never hauled in more than six touchdowns in a single season.  Let another owners overpay for him, and instead focus your attention on other fantasy commodities (and preferably those NOT donning the pewter and red).

Impact Report – Atlanta Falcons

Thought to be a team on the rise after the 2008 season, the Atlanta Falcons took a step backwards in 2009.  Quarterback Matt Ryan did not take the strides most expected of him in his second year, and workhorse back Michael Turner spent much of the season rehabbing from injury.  The defensive secondary got burned early and often, and left the offense playing catch-up far more often than Falcons coaches would have preferred.  The core of talent from the team’s stellar 2008 campaign returns, however, and once again big things are expected from this (now healthy) group of Falcons in 2010.

Ryan was a major disappointment to fantasy owners in 2009, and though he has plenty of weapons around him, he is no longer looked at as a QB1 in most circles.  It’s possible he exceeds expectations, of course, but owners should not reach for him as early as they may have a season ago.  In a year where many fantasy honks openly pine for a top-5 draft selection (to draft one of the few “sure thing” backs), Michael Turner is being overlooked.  On a pace for another monster season last year before going down to injury, The Burner seems to be the forgotten man at the top of fantasy cheat sheets this year.  Don’t be fooled, Turner is a fantasy stud, and will prove it again in 2010 (assuming he can avoid the type of injuries that derailed the second half of his 2009 campaign).  Roddy White is a bonafide WR1, though he doesn’t receive the fanfare than many of his counterparts do around the league.  The starter on the opposite side of the field, Michael Jenkins, is a tremendous blocker, but represents very little fantasy value as a pass-catcher.  Tony Gonzalez will return for at least one more season in 2010, but has shown signs of slowing down a bit, and may not ever again be the fantasy stalwart he was when roaming the middle of Arrowhead Stadium during his years in Kansas City.

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Keeper League Question

I get to keep 2 players
My choices are Maurice Jones Drew, Shonn Greene, Mendenhal, Fitzgerald.
My first one is easy in Drew…it’s the second one that has me crazy.
1. Fitzerald I really think with his new QB he will have trouble getting him the ball.
2. Mendenhal I really think he is going to have a tough time doing anything.
3. Greene I really think what you said in your site is true LT is done. With a strong off-line and a team that will score…I have to pick Greene.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?

Answer:That would be my pick as well, also keeping in mind that Sanchez is not that great, they are going to be a run first unit. Fitz is a little dinged as well, Leinart has looked mediocre at best so far this year.

This post was submitted by Phil.

Impact Report – Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers are a throwback to the NFL days of yore. In this pass-happy era of professional football, the Panthers continue to pound the rock between the tackles, content with the four-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust results. Granted, the team finished the year at a pedestrian 8-8, so the organization realized tweaks were needed to get the team back to the postseason. Thus, the franchise chose to part ways with long-time starting quarterback Jake Delhomme in the offseason, and brought in Jimmy Clausen to compete with Matt Moore for the starting gig. Moore has had the upper hand through camp, but drafting Clausen in the second round was an indication that the Panthers front office may not be entirely sold on Moore’s long-term prospects at the helm. Regardless, Carolina figures to be a run-first team again in 2010, as DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart make up one of the elite backfield tandems in the NFL. Steve Smith also hopes to rebound from a disappointing 2009, and should do just that now that the erratic Delhomme has moved on to Cleveland.

Moore is a low-end QB2, in terms of fantasy potential, and Clausen would likely not even rank that highly if he were to win the starting job coming out of the preseason. Smith is the only receiver worth owning, though he seems due for a bounce-back season, and is a fantastic WR2 option. Rookie Brandon LaFell appears the most likely to start opposite Smith, but until he adjusts to the speed of the pro game and has a few solid showings on Sundays, his is waiver-wire material. Williams and Stewart are both fantasy beasts on their own accord (both could be viewed as borderline RB1/RB2 assets), and if either were to go down for an extended stretch, the other would immediately become a top-5 option overall. Carolina has one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the league, and both backs will get ample opportunity to run to daylight. The time-share will no doubt frustrate some owners (in the sense of “what could have been”), but it is not a reason to avoid the Panthers’ duo in upcoming fantasy drafts, as both will likely finish well ahead of most teams’ “starters” in terms of statistical production.

Impact Report – New Orleans Saints

Who Dat?! After the 2009 season, New Orleans Saints fans could finally ask that question in a rhetorical sense, as no other NFL team was able to provide a definitive answer while watching the Saints march to their first championship in franchise history.  On the strength of Drew Brees’ right arm, and an opportunistic defense, the city of New Orleans finally had a much-deserved reason to observe Mardi Gras in February.  The team returns the vast majority of key starters in 2010, and it should be another electric year in the Bayou as the franchise looks to repeat.

Drew Brees has proven over the last several years to be fantasy gold.  Very few players have demonstrated the consistent excellence that owners are now accustomed to from Brees.  He should be the first QB off the board in fantasy drafts (nudging out Aaron Rodgers, based solely on historical track record if nothing else), regardless of format.  Mike Bell is gone from the backfield, and Lynell Hamilton (thought to be in line for significant redzone carries this year) is out for the year due to injury, which means Pierre Thomas is primed to become a fantasy star.  He is a rock-solid RB2, with even better upside.  Marques Colston has been Brees’ favorite target in recent years, and is still a low-end WR1 option in 2010.  However, Robert Meachem is a more complete receiver, and his emergence in 2009 was no fluke.  He is the team’s No. 1 of the future, and the future could begin as early as this season.  Meachem’s ADP is considerably lower than Colston, but we could very well be talking about a reversal of fortunes between the two wideouts this time next year.  Reggie Bush returns in his Renaissance Man role, but cannot be counted on as a fantasy contributor from week to week (at least not in a RB1 or RB2 capacity).

Impact Report – Detroit Lions

The Detroit Lions have won two of their last 32 games.  In a league of parity, it is a statistical anomaly to be as downtrodden as the Detroit organization has been in recent years.  But the 2010 Lions will surprise some people, and the offense will point up points.  Last year’s defense was historically bad, and likely won’t be much better this season.  But the offseason acquisitions of TE Tony Scheffler, WR Nate Burleson, and rookie RB Jahvid Best will give franchise signal caller Matthew Stafford a considerably better supporting cast than what he played with during his rookie campaign.  WR Calvin Johnson will remain the focus of opposing defenses, but the triple-team bracket coverage he saw in 2009 should be a thing of the past.  In what looks to be a pass-first offense, the rookie dynamo that is Jahvid Best should have room to make a run (literally) at Offensive Rookie of the Year honors.  The city of Detroit is no stranger to shoot-outs, and with a sieve-like defense and suddenly-relevant offense, Lions fans can expect the “tradition” to carry over into Forbes Field in 2010.

This may be the last season Stafford can be had outside the top-10 at his position.  He has sneaky QB1 fantasy potential this year, though owners can likely wait until the later rounds before selecting the second-year quarterback.  Reports indicate the team has focused heavily in camp on getting Calvin Johnson the ball in the redzone, and Megatron is a good bet to lead all receivers in targets this season.  He is a lock WR1.  Best has RB2 potential, but remains a bit of a gamble because of his small frame, injury history, and lack of professional experience.  Scheffler has a relatively low ADP, and could very well finish the season as a strong TE1, as he is more of a glorified WR than true tight end.  2009 first-round draft pick Brandon Pettigrew  will also see his share of snaps at tight end, but is not the receiving threat that Scheffer is (and the two will likely see the field together often in two-tight-end sets, with Scheffler occupying a slot receiver role and Pettigrew offering additional protection on Stafford’s blind-side).  Burleson is waiver-wire material at this point, but could prove to be an asset by fantasy season’s end, if he is able to stay healthy and exploit the single coverage he will see all season long lining up opposite Megatron in the base offense.

Impact Report – Chicago Bears

The winds of change blew through the Windy City in 2009 with mixed results. After trading for quarterback Jay Cutler before last season, the Chicago Bears felt they finally had the franchise signal caller the organization has lacked since Jim McMahon took his headband and rode out of town. Then Cutler proceeded to throw 26 interceptions (compared to 27 touchdowns) and suddenly the love affair was on shaky ground. But the Bears’ problems last year can be attributed to a number of factors (i.e., poor line play, injuries in the backfield, an unpolished receiving corps, etc.), not just Cutler’s propensity to turn the ball over. The franchise brought in Mike Martz as the team’s new offensive coordinator this offseason to help Cutler evolve, and capitalize on his strengths (namely a cannon arm and the ability to “make all the throws”). Devin Hester, Johnny Knox, and Devin Aromashodu will be Cutler’s primary weapons in the passing game, and Matt Forte and newly acquired Chester Taylor should split time in the backfield (though it’s likely Forte will remain the starter and primary ball-carrier). Signing end Julius Peppers this offseason should take steps to improve a once-feared defensive unit, though the back seven still has question marks at several positions.

Cutler has the look of a QB1 in a Martz-style offense. In fantasy leagues that do not penalize for interceptions, the sheer volume of pass attempts alone should make Cutler among the league leaders in statistical production. Whether or not that translates to more wins is of secondary importance to fantasy owners who, if they miss out on the first-tier QB’s in their respective drafts, should select Cutler with confidence in later rounds, and enjoy the QB1 production obtained at a bargain price. Forte was probably the biggest disappointment (from a fantasy perspective) in the entire league in 2009. Drafted in the top-5 overall in a majority of rotisserie leagues, Forte never really got into a groove last season running behind a putrid offensive front. He should be better in 2010, though Taylor may limit his opportunity some. Still, Forte should give owners RB2 production, and can likely be had in the middle rounds of drafts as owners vow not to get burned again. The receiving corps is one of the units currently garnering the most debate in fantasy circles. Knox is a speed-merchant, and reports indicate that he and Cutler have developed a yin-yang chemistry thus far in camp. He is at least a WR3 option this season, with serious WR2 upside. Hester continues to be an enigma (despite his home run hitting potential), and is a WR3/WR4/flex play. Aromashodu exploded onto the scene at the end of 2009, and currently has an ADP in the neighborhood of Knox, though he is only third on the depth chart at this time. Aromashodu is more of a possession receiver, but could very well find the endzone often enough to be a solid WR3 by year’s end. Martz is notorious for deploying his tight ends as decoys or keeping them near the line to help in pass protection, so perennial “sleeper” Greg Olsen should be passed over this year for other tight end options with more fantasy upside.